CCD Releases New Mexico’s Market Supply & Demand Analysis Report 2025
New Mexico’s latest Supply & Demand Analysis offers the clearest picture yet of what happens when an open market grows up fast, sheds illusions, and starts cutting weight. Based on more than 85 million retail transactions between April 2022 and February 2025, the report confirms what anyone working the floor or the back room already knows: prices have collapsed, competition is ruthless, and the market is moving away from traditional products toward higher-potency formats.
Dollar Tree
Across every major category, average prices dropped sharply. Concentrates and vapes saw the steepest declines—over 70%—while flower fell nearly 62%, and uninfused pre-rolls dropped just under 50%. This wasn’t driven by a drop in demand; it was driven by too many operators chasing the same customer with increasingly efficient production and tighter margins.
The early days rewarded scarcity. Those days are gone. The market now behaves like a mature grind: whoever can produce clean, consistent product at scale—or carve out a defensible niche—survives.
Flower Power
Flower and pre-rolls still account for the largest share of total sales dollars, about 58% all-time, but their dominance is shrinking. Since launch, their share has slid from over 63% to just under 53%. Meanwhile, concentrates, vapes, and infused flower have steadily taken territory, now approaching 35% of total sales combined.
This isn’t a rejection of flower—it’s an evolution. Consumers are chasing potency, efficiency, and consistency. Infused flower sits right in the middle of that Venn diagram: familiar form, heavier punch.
Attention Shoppers
Despite all the noise about gray and illicit supply, the legal market is doing its job. Nearly 90% of non-medical consumer spending comes from regulated or gray sources, with over 60% exclusively from licensed stores. Patients consume more and spend more—about $310 per month versus $206 for non-patients—but both groups overwhelmingly rely on legal channels.
Translation: It means pricing pressure isn’t coming from the shadows—it’s coming from inside the house.
Grazing Laws
By standard economic measures, both production and retail remain highly competitive. However, producer concentration is beginning to creep upward. That usually means one of three things: small operators are exiting, larger players are absorbing share, or both. Retail competition has stabilized, suggesting specialization by location or category—or fast churn where failed stores are replaced just as quickly.
Oil Fields
Production data shows increasing volumes year over year, especially in material classified as “other”—product destined for concentrates rather than jars. Outdoor cycles still dominate the calendar, but the mix is shifting. More plants are being grown not to sell as flower, but to be processed down the line into oil. That tracks perfectly with consumer behavior and falling concentrate prices.
No Cap
One of the report’s clearest conclusions is also its most political: there’s no real justification for raising the 20,000-plant cap. Most licensees aren’t even close to it. Raising the ceiling would only help a handful of well-capitalized operators, accelerate consolidation, and squeeze out smaller players without meaningfully improving supply or access.
Likewise, a license moratorium might slow the bleeding temporarily, but it risks locking in incumbents and driving prices back up. Letting the market correct itself is painful—but interference could make it worse.
Vagabong
New Mexico’s market isn’t broken. It’s behaving exactly like an open, competitive system under pressure. Prices fall. Preferences shift. Inefficient operators exit. Those who are able to blend old habits and adapt to what’s actually selling—not what used to sell—will still be here when the dust settles.
This isn’t the green rush anymore. It’s the long haul.
